Every superhero film franchise, and other franchises in general have a saturation point. There is a reason why even though the films are separated by 500 million dollars, Superman(1978) and Marvel’s The Avengers(2012) are actually very close in terms of actual attendance. Others in this group are Batman(1989), Spider-Man(2002) and The Dark Knight(2008). Considering both inflation and The Avengers’ 3D boosted tickets*, all of these films are within 25% of each others’ ticket sales. They all reached their respective series’ saturation points. Star Wars(1977) and Raiders of the Lost Ark(1981) are other examples of this, as their arguably superior sequels, The Empire Strikes Back(1980) and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade(1989) started out with more, but ended with less.
*Even though The Avengers outgrossed The Dark Knight, their ticket sales are very close due to 3D upcharges.
As can probably be gleaned from the above examples, the saturation point is often hit by the first film in a franchise. So, why do I think the defacto seventh film in the X-Men franchise will hit it? Because for one thing, it has already been proven that the first film was not the highest ticket seller of the franchise. X-Men(2000) sold less tickets than both X2: X-Men United(2003) and X-Men: The Last Stand(2006). The latter two being in a virtual tie for first, with “X3” just edging X2 by a mere 135,000 or so. As far as franchises go, only the anomalistic Lord of the Rings franchise has multiple(all three, really) films so close to the series’ saturation point. Exceptions to a rule do not make or change the rule. Also, even the highest point in the X-Men series, “X3“, sold less than half of the top tier of the above examples. There is room for improvement, and I think X-Men: Days of Future Past can capitalize on that fact.
X-Men: The Last Stand would have made over 300 million if it was released at today’s prices and had the advantage of 3D upcharges.
Now that we have established that the X-Men franchise has yet to reach its peak, we can move on to why this particular X-Men film has more going for it than any of the past seven editions. Marvel’s The Avengers was a phenomenon, and while I firmly believe phenomenons cannot be predicted, they can be seen with 20/20 vision once they have occurred. Let me state for the record that I think X-Men “7” has zero chance at replicating The Avengers’ success. That said, I see no reason it can’t do half of it. Both X2: X-Men United and X-Men: The Last Stand adjust to between 285-290m when inflation is taken into account. Neither film had what The Avengers had….the team-up gimmick. X-Men: Days of Future Past has both the original cast from “X1” to “X3” and the more recent X-Men: First Class.
The Avengers had a team of four different franchises: Iron Man, The Hulk, Thor and Captain America. However, I believe the real pull of The Avengers was seeing Iron Man with these other superheroes. Iron Man, as played by Robert Downey Jr, is unequivocally the star of Marvel’s connected universe of films. Just as Wolverine, as played by Hugh Jackman, is the star of the X-Men universe. Yes, Wolverine is nowhere near as popular as Iron Man in film. But he is probably half as popular, considering the average of his spin-off films is basically half of the average of the three Iron Mans. Attendance-wise, Wolverine’s two films average 20-21 million tickets. Iron Man’s average is 40-44 million. X-Men First Class was a bit lower than Wolverine’s average, but having an X-Men film without Wolverine(Cameos don’t count) makes one wonder just how well an Avengers film would do starring just Captain America, Thor and Hulk. Surely not 600 million plus. In addition, First Class has done very well for itself in the ancillary markets, which has boosted that X-Men group’s fanbase. Even though the last two entries in the franchise, the aforementioned First Class and The Wolverine(2013), may not have blown the world up, they were still well received by theater-goers and on video.
No, cameos don’t count toward the typical Wolverine and the X-Men boost.
Having Wolverine team-up with the First Class team(as well as the original team) is going to be more appealing than either “X2” or “X3” were. And considering that those two films nearly reached an inflation-adjusted 300 million without the advantage of the team-up gimmick or 3D prices(and as long as director Bryan Singer delivers a quality product), I don’t see how X-Men: Days of Future Past does not make over 300 million dollars. If X-Men: Days of Future Past sells half of Marvel’s The Avengers‘ tickets, it will make 310 million. I believe it can go even higher.
Another good comparison for the X-Men franchise is the Fast and Furious franchise. After two rather great outings, the franchise fell to its low point with The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift(2006). And even though that film and 2Fast 2Furious(2003) before it, failed to become classics, the next chapter Fast and Furious(2009) managed to just squeak by 2Fast in admissions. Fast and Furious brought back most of the original cast, much like Days of Future Past is. With its two stars, Vin Diesel and Paul Walker back together. That team-up(see a pattern here?) managed to bring the series back to a typical attendance level despite the failings of its predecessor. And then Fast 5(2011) took the team-up(there it is again) aspect to the next level by bringing back most of the characters from previous films and having them team-up(I know, it’s getting old by now) with The Rock, Dwayne Johnson. That film took the entire franchise to new heights and its sequel even more so(by teaming up yet another character from past films, OK I’ll stop now). Much like some pundits are saying about the X-Men franchise, most thought this franchise had left its glory days in the past, but they were proved to be very wrong.
Paul Walker, you will be missed.
X-Men: Days of Future Past will make more than 300 million dollars in the domestic market. How much more? Only time will tell that tale. But, considering Fox has green lighted another sequel in 2016, I think it’s safe to say they know what they’ve got and are planning to milk it for all it’s worth. And really, who can blame them?
Accursed Arachnid! 
Really good article AA. I don’t think it will reach quite those heights but you make a compelling case for it do so.